How long can the UK afford the pension triple lock?


Future sums threaten to be eyewatering. The government’s own independent forecaster says that by 2070 the amount needed to fund the state pension will be equivalent to 7.7% of GDP – 50% higher than right now.

That is quite an ask of taxpayers when other claims on the public purse are also projected to soar, in particular healthcare spending – largely for the same group of older Brits.

As the costs mount, many economists say the triple lock might disappear. Keeping it going means shifting an increasing amount of resources from younger generations, workers and business owners, to older ones.

The government has committed to keeping it in place for the rest of the parliament, but Pensions Minister Torsten Bell admitted in a previous role – as chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, a think tank that focuses on the plight of the lower paid – that the triple lock is a “messy tool”.

So what should replace it? In his previous job, Bell touted a system of increases that was shielded from spikes in inflation.

Webb, who acknowledges the triple lock can’t continue “infinitely”, has mentioned a system of getting the pension to a certain proportion of average earnings – and then maintaining that.

Others have floated the idea of linking it to inflation or earnings increases.


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