Why the US is expected to cut interest rates


In many ways, it is no surprise that the Fed, which sets interest rate policy independent of the White House, is cutting.

The inflation that ripped through the post-pandemic economy and prompted the bank to raise interest rates in 2022 has come down significantly.

In the UK, Europe, Canada and elsewhere, central banks have already responded with lower rates, while the Fed’s own policymakers have said for months that they expected to lower borrowing costs by at least half a percentage point this year.

At the Fed’s last meeting, two members of the board even backed a cut.

They were outvoted, as other members remained worried that Trump’s economic policies, including tax cuts, tariffs and mass detentions of migrant workers, might cause inflation to flare back up again.

And it’s true that the US in recent months has seen inflation tick higher. Prices rose 2.9% over the 12 months to August, the fastest pace since January, and still above the Fed’s 2% target.

But in recent weeks, those concerns have been eclipsed by weakness in the labour market. The US reported meagre job gains in August and July and an outright loss in June – the first such decline since 2020.


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