Reeves urged to make Budget ‘bold’ or risk future tax rises


“A key challenge is ensuring that fiscal groundhog day doesn’t become a twice-yearly ritual,” Ms Miller said.

She said the position the chancellor finds herself in was “to a large extent, a situation of her own making”.

“When choosing to operate her fiscal rules with such teeny tiny headroom, Ms Reeves would have known that run-of-the-mill forecast changes could easily blow her off course,” Ms Miller added.

The think tank pointed to rising borrowing costs, weaker growth forecasts and spending commitments made since the spring as reasons for the government’s tight position.

It said Reeves needs to make up that shortfall so she can meet her own fiscal rules, which she has called “non-negotiable”.

The two main rules are:

Ms Miller added that the “constant obsession with the headroom” was a distraction from important debates on how policy could bolster economic growth and the reform of the tax system.

Speaking on Wednesday, Reeves gave the strongest indication to date that she is planning to raise taxes in the Budget.

The IFS’s green budget looks ahead to some of the decisions the government will have to make in its 26 November Budget. The report is funded by the Nuffield Foundation and produced in association with Barclays.

In a chapter of its report published last week, the IFS urged said Reeves could raise tens of billions of pounds a year more in revenue without breaking manifesto promises, but this would not be straightforward.

During last year’s election, Labour said they “will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT” – which the IFS flags as the simplest ways to raise revenue.


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