By bizn_fun 
Governments failing to shift to a low-carbon economy will be blamed for famine and conflict abroad, and will face stagnation and rising inflation at home, the UN’s climate chief warned on Monday at the start of the Cop30 climate talks.
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, addressed the gathering of ministers and high-ranking officials from nearly 200 countries, in a stark portrayal of the price of failure on the climate crisis.
“Not one single nation among you can afford this, as climate disasters rip double digits off GDP,” he said. “To falter whilst megadroughts wreck national harvests, sending food prices soaring, makes zero sense economically and politically. To squabble while famines take hold, forcing millions to flee their homelands – this will never be forgotten as conflicts spread.”
He told the opening meeting of the UN climate summit: “When climate disasters decimate the lives of millions, when we already have the solutions, this will never, ever be forgiven.”
The two weeks of talks, hosted by Brazil in the Amazonian city of Belém, will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, setting a path for the transition away from fossil fuels, and providing the finance needed to protect poor countries against extreme weather.
Temperatures have already surpassed the 1.5C threshold agreed under the 2015 Paris treaty for the past two years, but only if that continues for several more years will the rise be judged permanent and a breach of the treaty. Some scientists argue it could still be possible to bring down temperatures to the threshold again, or close to it, through measures such as cutting the powerful greenhouse gas methane and by a rapid switch to low-carbon technologies.
Stiell said: “The science is clear: we can and must bring temperatures back down to 1.5C after any temporary overshoot.”
He said the world was already witnessing the impacts of extreme weather, in stronger typhoons and hurricanes, and droughts and floods. The effects were global, he added, causing inflation on commodities such as food.
Seizing the opportunities of low-carbon energy, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels across 90% of the world, would bring jobs and economic growth, said Stiell. He added: “Those opting out or taking baby steps face stagnation and higher prices, while other economies surge ahead.”
The agenda for the Cop was adopted on Monday, without the protracted “agenda fights” over what should be discussed that have marred recent UN climate meetings. The Brazilian hosts convened negotiators on Sunday afternoon, and made clear their wishes to have a full agenda adopted before the conference opened.
The formal adoption means the talks can begin without delay, which is a relief given the packed nature of this conference. However, the way in which the agenda was adopted – with some key items being combined, or moved to sit under new workstreams within the negotiations – means that clarification is needed on some issues, such as finance, the further measures needed on emissions, and how to stay within the 1.5C limit. There will be intense “presidency consultations” until Wednesday, at which point Brazil plans to set out how the agenda will work in practice over the remainder of the conference.
Saudi Arabia and the Like-Minded Developing Countries grouping vocally objected to some of the discussions. The group takes a hard line on how much finance should be provided by developed countries, but also wants to minimise discussions on the national plans on emissions.
Discussions on the “transition away from fossil fuels” that was agreed at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, regarded as of vital importance by many campaigners, could be difficult to house under the formal agenda, and could be moved to fall instead under the “action agenda”. This is a separate grouping of issues Brazil has instituted that, unlike items under the formal Cop agenda, can be progressed without consensus.
One of the key discussions will be over the “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), which are so far grossly inadequate, and would lead to global heating of 2.5C. The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) has asked for an agenda item that would address this, and require the conference to resolve a series of measures to do better. Ilana Seid, Palau’s ambassador and the chair of Aosis, said: “The 1.5C target is our north star. We need to say that collectively we are falling short on that and we need to have a response.”
But that is likely to face severe opposition, particularly from countries in the like-minded countries grouping. They prefer to interpret the Paris agreement’s dual goal – of holding temperatures “well below 2C” while “pursuing efforts” to stay within 1.5C – as allowing temperatures to rise to 2C, even though several meetings since Paris have reaffirmed 1.5C as the key goal. Scientific advice is that dangerous “tipping points” leading to irreversible changes could be triggered above 1.5C, and before the 2C limit is breached.
The same countries may also oppose attempts to set out a “roadmap” on how to ensure the world fulfils the promise to transition away from fossil fuels, which was made two years ago at Cop28 in Dubai.
Rich countries will also fall under the spotlight for their failure to cut emissions fast enough, and to provide sufficient finance for vulnerable developing countries. Last year, they promised $300bn in financial assistance, as part of a wider goal of $1.3tn per year for poor countries by 2035, but without a clear plan on how to meet either target. They will be under pressure to flesh out those plans this year.
The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, stressed the importance of emissions reductions during this Cop, even though it was not on the formal agenda. “We need a roadmap so that humanity … can overcome its dependence on fossil fuels,” he said.
He also raised the importance of reducing deforestation and putting people at the heart of climate action, particularly Indigenous communities. Lula launched a fierce attack on those who spread fear and attacked science – an apparently veiled reference to the US president, Donald Trump, who has constantly called climate action a “hoax” and recently bullied smaller nations into weakening action on maritime emissions.
In a defence of the Paris agreement, Lula said the world would be doomed to catastrophic warming of 5C by the end of this century if it were not for multilateral negotiations. “We are moving in the right direction,” he said, but emphasised the need for more urgency in implementation of policies.
“I hope the serenity of the forest inspires in all of us much-needed clarity of thought,” he added.