Slow growth raises stakes even higher for the Budget


The silver lining to the cloudy figures is that a further Bank of England rate cut next month now seems very likely, with perhaps more to come next year.

It is reflected in the declining cost of government borrowing on markets, with key two- and five-year rates now below what Labour inherited when entering office. The cost of fixed mortgage rates is also starting to come down.

The chancellor will see this as vindication for a tough stance on her “non-negotiable” rules, and will use these figures to demand discipline over tricky Budget decisions from her backbenches. The property market has also, however, been impacted by speculation about tax changes.

The feel-good factor is missing. UK consumers, unlike US consumers, have kept savings levels high, and are not spending as much. Years of rolling crises, followed by ongoing uncertainty about policy, has left scars.

The UK economy has not managed to break the trend of slow growth, despite a strong-ish first half of the year. There was no growth when adjusting for the size of the population.

While the economy has defied the recessionary vibes, and could still end up the second fastest G7 economy this year, the Budget somehow has to provide certainty, try to boost consumer and business confidence, and at the same time fill a large fiscal gap.

It’s quite the ask, and the latest growth figures have raised the stakes for the Budget even higher.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *