UK economy growth forecasts lowered from next year


The OBR said, in isolation, the reduction in productivity growth could have lowered government revenues by about £16bn in 2029-30.

However, the government has announced a number of revenue raising measures, including freezing income tax thresholds for a further three years from 2028.

The freeze in thresholds is forecast to result in 780,000 more income tax basic-rate taxpayers, 920,000 more people paying the higher-rate, and 4,000 more paying the additional-rate in 2029-30.

As well as tax rises, the OBR said the chancellor’s Budget policies would increase spending in every year and by £11bn in 2029-30, primarily to pay for “reversals to welfare cuts and lift the two-child limit in universal credit”.

The OBR said it expects the rate of inflation to be 3.5% this year – which is slightly higher than the forecaster’s previous estimate in March of 3.2%.

It also lifted next year’s inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%, but the rate is then expected to fall to 2% in 2027 and the following two years.

Inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, is expected to have reached a recent peak of 3.6% in the year to October.

The UK’s employment rate is currently at 5% and the OBR said it expects it to remain around the same level until 2027.


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