Did the leaks and speculation in the run-up to the Budget damage the economy?published at 09:59 GMT
Michael Race
Business and economics reporter
The amount of speculation over various potential policies/tax rises/spending cuts in the run-up to the Budget has prompted questions over whether the briefing and leaks from the Treasury had a damaging impact on the UK economy.
Last week, a senior figure at the UK’s official economic forecaster told MPs that it raised concerns with Treasury officials over leaks to the media and “misconceptions” being reported, saying it was “clear that we didn’t find this helpful”.
We will only know in time to see if the economic data suggests the uncertainty surrounding the Budget had a material impact but this morning, a major UK house builder has suggested it did have an impact on its business.
Berkeley Group revealed in its half-year results that its pre-tax profits had fallen 7.7% and said customer interest in homes was “good” but was being affected by higher interest rates.
However, it also added that the “value of underlying sales reservations” became “more subdued since, due to speculation and uncertainty leading up to last month’s Budget”.
At its last interest rate meeting, the Bank of England noted some businesses suggested that the intelligence it was getting painted a “picture of a flat economy, with contacts uncertain about potential announcements in the upcoming Autumn Budget”. It also highlighted that contacts in the housing industry considered that the uncertainty was “weighing on activity”.
The government has made growing the economy its top priority in an bid to improve living standards, but growth has been sluggish in recent months.
The OBR, which maps out how the economy is set to perform based on the government’s tax and spending policies, has increased its growth expectations for this year, has estimated the economy is now predicted to grow at a slower rate than previously expected from next year.
