By bizn_fun 
Key events
This morning’s borrowing figures show that the UK’s net debt-to-GDP ratio remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s:
The net debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of November 2025 was provisionally estimated at 95.6%, which is 0.3 percentage points more than a year ago.
November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, says Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.
However, both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for the Chancellor after she tightened policy in the Budget in late-November, Dales adds.
Non-food retailers, such as department stores and clothing shops, bucked the downward trend last monh with a 1% rise in sales volumes.
The ONS says:
Department stores’ sales volumes rose, which some retailers attributed to longer Black Friday discounting, while retailers of footwear and leather goods also did well. Sales of automotive fuel recovered from last month’s fall, returning to just above September 2025 levels.
Retail sales fall as Black Friday effect fades
Retail sales across Great Britain fell in November, as cautious consumers cut back on their shopping ove the Black Friday period.
Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in November, the Office for National Statistics reports, which may intensify fears that uncertainty ahead of the budget on 26 November cooled the economy.
Spending at non-store (online) retailers fell, while supermarket sales volumes fell for their fourth consecutive month, the ONS says, with retailers reporting low footfall. It suspects the “Black Friday effect” on the retail sector was was slightly weaker than usual.
ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said:
“Retail continued to grow in the three months to November, helped by a strong performance from clothing and tech shops.
“This year November’s Black Friday discounts did not boost sales as much as in some recent years, meaning that once we adjust for usual seasonality, our headline figures fell a little on the month.
November’s drop follows a fall of 0.9% in October and a rise of 0.8% in September.
Introduction: UK government borrowing hits four-year low in November
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Britain’s government borrowing has dropped to a four-year low in November, as higher tax receipts boosted the public coffers.
The Office for National Statistics has reported that UK borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – dipped to £11.7bn in November; £1.9bn less than November 2024 and the lowest for any November since 2021.
This gap narrowed thanks to a £2.5bn increase in tax receipts to £63.5bn, including increases of £1.2bn in income tax, £400m in value added tax (VAT) and £400m in corporation tax receipts.
ONS senior statistician Tom Davies says:
“Despite an increase in spending, this month’s borrowing was the lowest November for four years. The main reason for the drop from last year was increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.
“However, across the financial year to date as a whole, borrowing is higher than last year.”
However, November’s borrowing is above forecasts – economists had expected borrowing to drop to £10bn.
And so far this financial year (since April), UK government borrowing has now risen to £132.3bn, £10.0bn more than in the same period in 2024.
The agenda
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7am GMT: UK retail sales for November
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7am GMT: UK public finances for November
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10.30am GMT: Russia’s interest rate decision
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11am GMT: CBI distributive trades
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3pm GMT: US home sales for November
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3pm GMT: University of Michigan US consumer confidence index