By bizn_fun 
Polymarket data shows traders put the odds of Maduro’s exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday 2 January.
But the odds had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of 3 January, indicating a sudden change in positions just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a non-partisan group that advocates for financial reform, told the BBC’s US partner CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”
A handful of other Polymarket users also made tens of thousands of dollars from wagers on Maduro’s capture.
Some lawmakers are starting to take note.
Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have “material nonpublic information” related to a bet.