A study of central banks in 118 countries between 2010 and 2018 found roughly 10% of central banks each year faced pressure from political leaders, like Trump, wanting lower interest rates, which make borrowing less expensive and can deliver a short-term economic boost.
Pressure on central bankers was most likely to emerge in countries with nationalist or populist leaders and was typically followed by higher inflation, says economist Carola Binder, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin who conducted the review.
In Turkey, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cycled through three central bank leaders in three years between 2019 and 2021, as he looked for someone who would execute on his unorthodox view that high interest rates fed inflation.
Inflation soared past 50%, as the bank bowed to his demands, before he agreed to appoint leaders with more moderate views.
Even in countries where central banks resisted the interference, Binder’s research found that inflation tended to rise, albeit to a lesser degree, suggesting pressure alone could cause damage.
